Certosa V. Campagnano vs Latte Dolce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Certosa V. Campagnano and 0.83 for Latte Dolce, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Certosa V. Campagnano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Certosa V. Campagnano win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Latte Dolce away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Certosa V. Campagnano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Certosa V. Campagnano and 0.83 for Latte Dolce, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Certosa V. Campagnano win55%

Draw25%

Latte Dolce win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.3%
1–111.8%
2–011.3%
2–19.3%
0–09.1%

Recent form

Certosa V. Campagnano

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Lodigiani · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarrabus Ogliastra · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ossese · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Anagni · 4-0 (W)

Latte Dolce

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Anagni · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Torres · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone G table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sarnese	9	6	2	1	6	20
2	Monastir	9	5	2	2	8	17
3	Certosa V. Campagnano	9	5	2	2	7	17
4	Aranova	9	4	3	2	3	15
5	Trastevere	9	4	3	2	-3	15
6	Paganese	9	4	1	4	6	13
7	Unipomezia	9	3	4	2	4	13
8	Ossese	9	3	4	2	3	13
9	Albalonga	9	3	4	2	2	13
10	Anzio	9	3	4	2	2	13
11	Città di Anagni	9	4	1	4	-1	13
12	Afragolese	9	2	5	2	2	11
13	Gelbison	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	Sarrabus Ogliastra	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Venafro	9	2	3	4	-5	9
16	Budoni	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Latte Dolce	9	1	4	4	-5	7
18	Atletico Lodigiani	9	0	2	7	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Certosa V. Campagnano win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.