Estadio Mansiche · Analysis updated 01:56 UTC
Cesar Vallejo vs Deportivo Llacuabamba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cesar Vallejo and 0.75 for Deportivo Llacuabamba, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Cesar Vallejo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cesar Vallejo home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Llacuabamba away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 1–017.2%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Cesar Vallejo
- 2026-10-07T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantil CNI · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · A vs U. San Martin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Llacuabamba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Carlos A. Mannucci · 1-0 (W)
Deportivo Llacuabamba
- 2026-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Agropecuaria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Molinos El Pirata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Academia Cantolao · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 2-0 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-09T18:00:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 0-2 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Segunda División)
- 2025-06-29T20:00:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 0-0 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Segunda División)
- 2025-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 4-1 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Segunda División)
- 2020-10-30T20:30:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 2-0 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Primera División)
- 2020-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Cesar Vallejo 3-2 Deportivo Llacuabamba (Primera División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -43 | 0 |
| 1 | Bentín Tacna Heroica | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Comerciantes | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Minas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Sport Huancayo 2 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | Alianza Universidad | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| 6 | Santos | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 21 |
| 7 | Ayacucho FC | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Estudiantil CNI | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportivo Binacional | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -39 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.