· Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Cesky Tesin vs Frýdlant Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Cesky Tesin and 1.49 for Frýdlant, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Cesky Tesin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cesky Tesin win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cesky Tesin home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frýdlant away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cesky Tesin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Cesky Tesin and 1.49 for Frýdlant, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
Cesky Tesin
- 2026-06-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pustá Polom · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Opava II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nový Jičín · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Frýdlant · 2-2 (D)
Frýdlant
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Opava II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hlučín · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stonava · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valašské Meziříčí · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Frydek-Mistek B · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Vratimov | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Kravare | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Hlučín | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Valašské Meziříčí | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Opava II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Stonava | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Nový Jičín | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Frydek-Mistek B | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Šumperk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -30 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cesky Tesin win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.