· Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Cetate Deva vs Progresul Pecica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.66 expected goals for Cetate Deva and 1.84 for Progresul Pecica, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Cetate Deva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cetate Deva win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
2.66 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cetate Deva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 18% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.66 goals for Cetate Deva and 1.84 for Progresul Pecica, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 56% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Cetate Deva
- 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Sântana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Alba Iulia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Pecica · 3-1 (W)
Progresul Pecica
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIL Blaj | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Unirea Sântana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Timişul Şag | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Cetate Deva | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 |
| 6 | Progresul Pecica | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Viitorul Arad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Poli Timisoara 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Alba Iulia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Nera Bogodinţi | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cetate Deva win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.