Areni Stadium · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Cetatea Suceava vs CSM Satu Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cetatea Suceava and 0.99 for CSM Satu Mare, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Cetatea Suceava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cetatea Suceava win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cetatea Suceava home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSM Satu Mare away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cetatea Suceava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Cetatea Suceava and 0.99 for CSM Satu Mare, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 46.6% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +1.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 72.4% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.77 | 51.1% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 49.3% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 51.7% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.93 | 48.3% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.7% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.7% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 77.7% | 76.7% | 1.30 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.35 | 27.6% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -1.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cetatea Suceava
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ştefăneşti · 1-3 (L)
CSM Satu Mare
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Afumati · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metaloglobus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Bacau | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Concordia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Metalul Buzău | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | CS Afumati | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Metaloglobus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | ASA Targu Mures | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Bihor Oradea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 19 | Unirea Slobozia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 22 | CS Dinamo București | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cetatea Suceava win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.