· Analysis updated 13:22 UTC
Cetatea vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Cetatea and 0.98 for Axi Adunații-Copăceni, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Cetatea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cetatea win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cetatea home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Axi Adunații-Copăceni away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cetatea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Cetatea and 0.98 for Axi Adunații-Copăceni, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Cetatea
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxigen Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs LPS HD Clinceni · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Mogosoaia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucureşti II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Voluntari II · 2-2 (D)
Axi Adunații-Copăceni
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Omega Sport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Spartac · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alexandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxigen Bucuresti · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omega Sport | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Alexandria | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | LPS HD Clinceni | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Dinamo Bucureşti II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Cetatea | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Oxigen Bucuresti | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Voluntari II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | FCSB II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 12 | Progresul Spartac | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cetatea win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.