· Analysis updated 10:11 UTC
Ceuta II vs Linense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Ceuta II and 1.38 for Linense, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Ceuta II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ceuta II win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ceuta II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Linense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ceuta II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Ceuta II and 1.38 for Linense, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Ceuta II
- 2026-10-24T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrera · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomares · 0-1 (L)
Linense
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cádiz II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ceuta II win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.