Ceuta II vs Utrera Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ceuta II and 1.43 for Utrera, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Utrera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Utrera win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ceuta II home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Utrera away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Utrera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Ceuta II and 1.43 for Utrera, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ceuta II win27%

Draw27%

Utrera win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.6%
1–112.6%
0–29.0%
1–29.0%
0–08.8%

Recent form

Ceuta II

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Roque Lepe · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dos Hermanas · 2-2 (D)

Utrera

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cádiz II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo Huelva · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Utrera	6	5	0	1	3	15
2	Dos Hermanas	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Portuense	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Betis C	6	4	1	1	6	13
5	Tomares	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Pozoblanco	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Egabrense	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	San Roque Lepe	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Xerez Deportivo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Chiclana	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Recreativo Huelva	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Ceuta II	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Linense	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Conil	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Cádiz II	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Bollullos	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Sevilla III	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Córdoba II	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Utrera win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.