USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 2723:30

3 – 1

Saturday, 26 September 2026

Saputo Stadium · Referee Ismail Elfath, USA · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC

CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for CF Montreal and 1.38 for FC Cincinnati, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives FC Cincinnati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

CF Montreal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Cincinnati away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

CF Montreal win36%

Draw26%

FC Cincinnati win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.3%
1–08.9%
1–28.4%
2–18.1%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 45.2% vs market 31.9%, edge +13.3 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	2.90	31.9%	45.2%	2.21	+13.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.53	60.9%	61.5%	1.63	+0.6
Match result	Away	2.38	38.0%	38.5%	2.60	+0.5
Match result	Draw	3.50	25.8%	25.8%	3.88	-0.0
Double chance	Home/Away	1.25	74.5%	74.2%	1.35	-0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.44	64.7%	64.3%	1.56	-0.4
Match result	Home	2.50	36.2%	35.7%	2.80	-0.5
Both teams to score	Yes	1.36	68.1%	54.8%	1.82	-13.3

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

CF Montreal

2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 1-2 (L)

FC Cincinnati

2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-22T17:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 3-4 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-18T22:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-25T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 1-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2025-01-24T17:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-1 FC Cincinnati (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-08-31T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 1-4 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-13T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 2-1 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2023-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 1-1 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2023-05-17T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 0-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2022-05-28T23:30:00.000Z · CF Montreal 4-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)
2022-04-02T20:00:00.000Z · CF Montreal 4-3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.