Estadio Hidalgo · Referee Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina, Mexico · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for CF Pachuca and 0.78 for Club Tijuana, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives CF Pachuca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CF Pachuca win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CF Pachuca home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CF Pachuca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for CF Pachuca and 0.78 for Club Tijuana, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 57.7% vs market 47.8%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 47.8% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.2% | 80.8% | 1.24 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.7% | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 54.7% | 54.9% | 1.82 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.3% | 19.2% | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.1% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.2% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
CF Pachuca
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T03:10:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | CF Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CF Pachuca win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.