Estadio Hidalgo · Referee Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
CF Pachuca vs Necaxa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for CF Pachuca and 0.96 for Necaxa, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives CF Pachuca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CF Pachuca win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CF Pachuca home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Necaxa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 50.3% vs market 43.5%, edge +6.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +6.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 45.3% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 53.2% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.6% | 4.07 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.1% | 75.4% | 1.33 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 78.7% | 77.9% | 1.28 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -6.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
CF Pachuca
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlante FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-1 (D)
Necaxa
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-04T01:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 1-0 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2025-04-12T01:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 5-3 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-03T03:06:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 6-2 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2024-05-06T02:06:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2024-02-24T03:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 1-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2023-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 1-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-30T01:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 2-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-28T00:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 0-2 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-05T23:00:00.000Z · CF Pachuca 3-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CF Pachuca win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.