Estadio Miguel Hidalgo · Analysis updated 09:11 UTC
CF Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for CF Pachuca and 1.98 for Toluca, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Toluca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Toluca win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CF Pachuca home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toluca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Toluca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for CF Pachuca and 1.98 for Toluca, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
CF Pachuca
- 2026-10-22T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
Toluca
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico San Luis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T22:50:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toluca win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.