Estadio El Prado · Analysis updated 02:38 UTC
CF Talavera vs Real Valladolid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for CF Talavera and 1.37 for Real Valladolid II, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives CF Talavera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CF Talavera home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CF Talavera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for CF Talavera and 1.37 for Real Valladolid II, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
CF Talavera
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Paso · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 2-1 (W)
Real Valladolid II
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2022-04-06T17:00:00.000Z · CF Talavera 1-2 Real Valladolid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2021-10-29T17:00:00.000Z · CF Talavera 0-2 Real Valladolid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.