Stade Municipal de Mahamasina · Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
CFFA vs Kabwe Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for CFFA and 1.16 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives CFFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CFFA home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CFFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for CFFA and 1.16 for Kabwe Warriors, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
CFFA
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lijabatho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lijabatho · 2-0 (W)
- 2022-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Royal Leopards · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Leopards · 2-3 (L)
- 2021-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-3 (L)
Kabwe Warriors
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutondo Stars · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Man Utd Zambia Academy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zanaco · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ZESCO United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.