Stade Kianja Barea Mahamasina · Referee Jose Chitumba · Analysis updated 19:22 UTC
CFFA vs Royal Leopards Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for CFFA and 1.64 for Royal Leopards, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Royal Leopards the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CFFA home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Royal Leopards away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Royal Leopards to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 36% / 24% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for CFFA and 1.64 for Royal Leopards, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
CFFA
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lijabatho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lijabatho · 2-0 (W)
- 2022-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Royal Leopards · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Royal Leopards · 2-3 (L)
- 2021-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-3 (L)
Royal Leopards
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Buffaloes · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tabankulu · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Highlanders · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ezulwini United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manzini Sea Birds · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.