· Analysis updated 05:44 UTC
CFRJ / Maricá vs Audax Rio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for CFRJ / Maricá and 0.63 for Audax Rio, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives CFRJ / Maricá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CFRJ / Maricá win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Audax Rio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CFRJ / Maricá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for CFRJ / Maricá and 0.63 for Audax Rio, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
CFRJ / Maricá
Audax Rio
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Cristóvão RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Duque de Caxias · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nova Cidade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Serrano RJ · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca A2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Americano Campos | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | CFRJ / Maricá | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Resende | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | América RJ | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Pérolas Negras | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 6 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Bonsucesso | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Olaria | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Cabofriense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | CEAC / Araruama | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Audax Rio | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CFRJ / Maricá win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.