· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
CFRJ / Maricá vs Pérolas Negras Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for CFRJ / Maricá and 0.67 for Pérolas Negras, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives CFRJ / Maricá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CFRJ / Maricá win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pérolas Negras away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CFRJ / Maricá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 29% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for CFRJ / Maricá and 0.67 for Pérolas Negras, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.0%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
CFRJ / Maricá
Pérolas Negras
- 2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca A2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Americano Campos | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | CFRJ / Maricá | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Resende | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | América RJ | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Pérolas Negras | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 6 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Bonsucesso | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Olaria | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Cabofriense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | CEAC / Araruama | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Audax Rio | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CFRJ / Maricá win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.