Stadio Níkos Kílimpas · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Chalkis vs Digenis Neochori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Chalkis and 1.72 for Digenis Neochori, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Digenis Neochori the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Digenis Neochori win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chalkis home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Digenis Neochori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Digenis Neochori to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Chalkis and 1.72 for Digenis Neochori, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Chalkis
- 2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zakynthos · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panelefsiniakos · 0-6 (L)
- 2023-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panagriniakos · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Digenis Neochori · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vyzas Megara · 0-5 (L)
Digenis Neochori
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 2-2 (D)
- 2023-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Petriti · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chalkis · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panelefsiniakos · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · Chalkis 0-1 Digenis Neochori (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
- 2023-01-22T13:00:00.000Z · Chalkis 2-0 Digenis Neochori (Gamma Ethniki - Group 3)
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonikos Siatista | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Veria | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Anagennisi Artas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Eordaikos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Kastoria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Naousa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | PAS Giannina | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Thyella Katsikas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Digenis Neochori win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.