Cham vs ASV Neumarkt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Cham and 0.93 for ASV Neumarkt, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cham win

71.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cham home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASV Neumarkt away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Cham and 0.93 for ASV Neumarkt, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cham win71%

Draw17%

ASV Neumarkt win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–010.2%
2–19.5%
3–08.4%
1–08.3%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Cham

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)

ASV Neumarkt

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	13	11	1	1	22	34
2	Würzburger FV	13	8	2	3	9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	13	7	3	3	11	24
5	Jahn Regensburg II	13	6	4	3	6	22
6	Fortuna Regensburg	13	6	3	4	10	21
7	Kornburg	13	5	6	2	10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	5	5	3	5	20
9	Stadeln	13	5	4	4	-3	19
10	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	5	3	5	5	18
11	Neudrossenfeld	13	5	1	7	-6	16
12	Ammerthal	13	4	2	7	-9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Weiden	13	3	3	7	-9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	13	2	5	6	-14	11
16	Großbardorf	13	3	1	9	-13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	2	4	7	-14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	13	1	3	9	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.