· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Cham vs Brühl Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Cham and 1.03 for Brühl, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cham win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brühl away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Cham and 1.03 for Brühl, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Cham
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 2-1 (W)
Brühl
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kreuzlingen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradiso · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Bulle | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Paradiso | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 6 | Grand-Saconnex | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Basel II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Zürich II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Breitenrain | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | YF Juventus | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Amical Saint-Prex | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | Kreuzlingen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Brühl | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Lugano II | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Young Boys II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Bavois | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.