Cham vs Gebenbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cham and 0.86 for Gebenbach, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cham win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.74 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cham home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gebenbach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Cham and 0.86 for Gebenbach, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cham win58%

Draw24%

Gebenbach win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.0%
2–011.3%
1–111.1%
2–19.7%
0–07.5%

Recent form

Cham

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)

Gebenbach

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Hof · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ASV Neumarkt · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	13	11	1	1	22	34
2	Würzburger FV	13	8	2	3	9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	13	7	3	3	11	24
5	Jahn Regensburg II	13	6	4	3	6	22
6	Fortuna Regensburg	13	6	3	4	10	21
7	Kornburg	13	5	6	2	10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	5	5	3	5	20
9	Stadeln	13	5	4	4	-3	19
10	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	5	3	5	5	18
11	Neudrossenfeld	13	5	1	7	-6	16
12	Ammerthal	13	4	2	7	-9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Weiden	13	3	3	7	-9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	13	2	5	6	-14	11
16	Großbardorf	13	3	1	9	-13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	2	4	7	-14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	13	1	3	9	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.