Cham vs Paradiso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cham and 1.47 for Paradiso, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Paradiso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cham home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paradiso away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cham win36%

Draw25%

Paradiso win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–28.6%
0–18.4%
2–18.1%
1–08.0%

Recent form

Cham

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zürich II · 4-0 (W)

Paradiso

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs YF Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zürich II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bellinzona · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Cham 0-2 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2026-05-09T14:30:00.000Z · Cham 2-0 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Cham 2-1 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-03-08T14:00:00.000Z · Cham 0-0 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Cham 0-0 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · Cham 1-1 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)
2023-11-18T14:00:00.000Z · Cham 0-1 Paradiso (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	11	6	2	3	11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Basel II	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	-6	16
10	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Zürich II	11	4	3	4	0	15
12	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	-9	11
15	Lugano II	11	3	0	8	-8	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.