· Analysis updated 09:56 UTC
Champasak United vs Lao Toyota Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Champasak United and 0.83 for Lao Toyota, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Champasak United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Champasak United win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Champasak United home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Champasak United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Champasak United and 0.83 for Lao Toyota, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Champasak United
- 2026-10-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Luangprabang FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Viengchanh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Master 7 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Lao Army · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-08T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Savannakhet · 7-0 (W)
Lao Toyota
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Lao League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ezra | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
| 2 | Salavan United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Viengchanh | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Savannakhet | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Luangprabang FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Champasak United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Namtha United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 8 | Lao Army | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Lao Toyota | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Master 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
| 11 | Oudomxay Entremets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Champasak United win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.