Changchun Xidu vs Shanghai Port II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Changchun Xidu and 1.47 for Shanghai Port II, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Shanghai Port II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Shanghai Port II win

53.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Changchun Xidu home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shanghai Port II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shanghai Port II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Changchun Xidu and 1.47 for Shanghai Port II, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Changchun Xidu win20%

Draw27%

Shanghai Port II win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–115.3%
1–112.1%
0–211.2%
0–010.4%
1–28.9%

Recent form

Changchun Xidu

2026-09-18T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Guangdong Mingtu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hubei Chufeng Heli · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Kewei · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BIT · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Xi'an Ronghai · 1-2 (L)

Shanghai Port II

2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Langfang Glory City · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Red Lions · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rizhao Yuqi · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Taishan II · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	28	15	5	8	19	50
2	Xi'an Ronghai	28	15	5	8	13	50
3	Guizhou Zhucheng	28	15	4	9	14	49
4	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	11	48
5	Shandong Taishan II	27	13	8	6	13	47
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	9	41
7	Langfang Glory City	28	9	14	5	-4	41
8	Tai'an Tiankuang	28	10	10	8	5	40
9	Hubei Chufeng Heli	27	10	9	8	6	39
10	Dalian Yingbo B	28	9	12	7	4	39
11	Jiangxi Liansheng	27	11	6	10	4	39
12	Nantong Haimen Codion	27	8	13	6	8	37
13	Xiamen Feilu	28	9	10	9	4	37
14	Guangdong Mingtu	27	7	14	6	4	35
15	Rizhao Yuqi	28	6	16	6	-3	34
16	Qingdao Red Lions	28	7	11	10	-2	32
17	Changchun Xidu	27	6	13	8	-10	31
18	Shangyu Pterosaur	28	7	10	11	-17	31
19	Guangzhou Dandelion	28	7	9	12	-7	30
20	Wuhan Three Towns II	27	6	9	12	-4	27
21	Yichun Grand Tiger	28	5	12	11	-14	27
22	Chengdu Rongcheng II	28	5	10	13	-12	25
23	BIT	28	5	10	13	-21	25
24	Shanghai Second	27	2	12	13	-20	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Shanghai Port II win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.