· Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Changwon City vs Yangpyeong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Changwon City and 1.33 for Yangpyeong, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Changwon City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Changwon City win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Changwon City home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yangpyeong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Changwon City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Changwon City and 1.33 for Yangpyeong, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Changwon City
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Korail · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Busan Transportation · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 1-1 (D)
Yangpyeong
- 2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Pocheon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Changwon City win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.