Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Chapelton vs Molynes United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chapelton and 0.75 for Molynes United, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Chapelton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chapelton win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chapelton home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chapelton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Chapelton and 0.75 for Molynes United, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Chapelton
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnett Gardens · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-05-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Waterhouse · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Spanish Town Police · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-04-24T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-04-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmore United · 0-2 (L)
Molynes United
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Tru-Juice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapelton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Treasure Beach · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-06T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Treasure Beach · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · Chapelton 2-1 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-03-29T20:30:00.000Z · Chapelton 2-2 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-11T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2025-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-1 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2025-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2024-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-4 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2023-03-20T22:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-3 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2022-12-21T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chapelton win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.