Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex · Analysis updated 04:58 UTC
Chapelton vs Molynes United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Chapelton and 1.02 for Molynes United, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Chapelton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chapelton home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Molynes United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Chapelton
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Treasure Beach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Humble Lions · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Waterhouse · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Tivoli Gardens · 1-1 (D)
Molynes United
- 2026-10-19T22:05:00.000Z · H vs Cavalier · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunbeholden · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Tru-Juice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapelton · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · Chapelton 2-1 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-03-29T20:30:00.000Z · Chapelton 2-2 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-11T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2025-03-16T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-1 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2025-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2024-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 0-4 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2023-03-20T22:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-3 Molynes United (Premier League)
- 2022-12-21T20:00:00.000Z · Chapelton 1-0 Molynes United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing United | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Tru-Juice | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 3 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Tivoli Gardens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Chapelton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 9 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.