Estadio Independiente MRCI · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Chapulineros vs Pioneros de Cancún Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Chapulineros and 2.45 for Pioneros de Cancún, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Pioneros de Cancún the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pioneros de Cancún win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chapulineros home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pioneros de Cancún away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pioneros de Cancún to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 12% / 17% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Chapulineros and 2.45 for Pioneros de Cancún, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.6%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–37.7%
Recent form
Chapulineros
- 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Montañeses · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Pioneros de Cancún · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 0-0 (D)
Pioneros de Cancún
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Celaya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapulineros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-21T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pioneros de Cancún win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.