· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Charleroi vs Seraing United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.40 for Seraing United, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Charleroi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Charleroi win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charleroi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Seraing United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charleroi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Charleroi and 1.40 for Seraing United, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–06.2%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Charleroi
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Kortrijk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:15:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 2-0 (W)
Seraing United
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Knokke · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Hasselt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dender · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Charleroi win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.