Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Charleston Battery and 0.97 for Hartford Athletic, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives Charleston Battery the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Charleston Battery win

53.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Charleston Battery home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charleston Battery to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Charleston Battery and 0.97 for Hartford Athletic, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Charleston Battery win53%

Draw25%

Hartford Athletic win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.0%
1–111.6%
2–09.9%
2–19.6%
0–07.3%

Recent form

Charleston Battery

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rhode Island · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterey Bay · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham Legion · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartford Athletic · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 2-0 (W)

Hartford Athletic

2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	11	7	9	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	11	5	11	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	5	12	10	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	4	11	11	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	4	6	17	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	-41	14
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	15	5	8	12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	12	45
4	Lexington	28	13	5	10	16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	11	10	7	7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	11	8	9	3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	-7	39
8	San Antonio	28	9	12	7	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	9	9	10	-3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	10	6	12	-4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	-2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	5	6	17	-20	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Charleston Battery win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.