Lisle Carr Oval · Analysis updated 06:47 UTC
Charlestown City Blues vs Edgeworth Eagles Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Charlestown City Blues and 2.50 for Edgeworth Eagles, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Edgeworth Eagles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Edgeworth Eagles win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Edgeworth Eagles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 15% / 17% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Charlestown City Blues and 2.50 for Edgeworth Eagles, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 67% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.9%
Recent form
Charlestown City Blues
Edgeworth Eagles
- 2026-08-30T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Belmont Swansea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlestown City Blues · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston Bears · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Edgeworth Eagles win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.