Lisle Carr Oval · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Charlestown City Blues vs Maitland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Charlestown City Blues and 2.45 for Maitland, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Maitland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maitland win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maitland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maitland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 13% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Charlestown City Blues and 2.45 for Maitland, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
Charlestown City Blues
Maitland
- 2026-09-13T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston Bears · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Broadmeadow Magic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston Bears · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-2 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2026-05-02T04:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 3-2 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2025-07-12T06:30:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-3 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2025-04-13T04:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-2 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2024-08-11T04:30:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-0 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2024-05-29T10:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 2-2 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2023-06-04T04:30:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-2 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2023-03-18T07:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 2-1 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2022-07-27T09:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 1-1 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
- 2022-04-30T04:00:00.000Z · Charlestown City Blues 3-3 Maitland (Northern NSW NPL)
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maitland win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.