American Legion Memorial Stadium · Referee E. Lezama · Analysis updated 10:47 UTC
Charlotte Independence vs Fort Wayne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Charlotte Independence and 1.35 for Fort Wayne, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Charlotte Independence the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Charlotte Independence win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charlotte Independence home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charlotte Independence to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Charlotte Independence and 1.35 for Fort Wayne, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Charlotte Independence
- 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portland Hearts of Pine · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Greenville Triumph · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs NY Cosmos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Sarasota Paradise · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fort Wayne · 1-1 (D)
Fort Wayne
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 51 |
| 5 | Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 39 |
| 9 | Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -8 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -20 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -22 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Charlotte Independence win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.