Princes Park · Analysis updated 11:28 UTC
Charlton Athletic U21 vs Preston North End U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Charlton Athletic U21 and 1.60 for Preston North End U21, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Charlton Athletic U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Charlton Athletic U21 win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charlton Athletic U21 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Preston North End U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charlton Athletic U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Charlton Athletic U21 and 1.60 for Preston North End U21, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Charlton Athletic U21
- 2026-09-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County U21 · 2-1 (W)
Preston North End U21
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Longridge Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-02T19:00:00.000Z · Charlton Athletic U21 1-1 Preston North End U21 (Premier League Cup)
- 2025-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · Charlton Athletic U21 2-1 Preston North End U21 (Premier League Cup)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Charlton Athletic U21 win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.