The Valley · Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Charlton Athletic W vs Bristol City W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Charlton Athletic W and 1.88 for Bristol City W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Bristol City W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bristol City W win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charlton Athletic W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bristol City W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bristol City W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 25% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Charlton Athletic W and 1.88 for Bristol City W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Charlton Athletic W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Birmingham City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace W · 0-3 (L)
Bristol City W
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolverhampton W · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
WSL Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 |
| 2 | Aston Villa W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Liverpool W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | London City Lionesses W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Brighton W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Everton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Burnley W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sunderland W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Wolverhampton W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Bristol City W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Watford W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Leicester City FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Southampton W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Sheffield United W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 1 |
| 20 | Birmingham City W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 21 | Newcastle United W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Durham W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 23 | Charlton Athletic W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bristol City W win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.