The Valley · Analysis updated 02:16 UTC
Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Charlton Athletic W and 3.11 for Chelsea W, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Chelsea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chelsea W win
85.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 3.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chelsea W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 5% / 10% / 85% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Charlton Athletic W and 3.11 for Chelsea W, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–311.7%
- 0–211.3%
- 0–49.1%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Charlton Athletic W
Chelsea W
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Manchester City W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Manchester United W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Aston Villa W | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Liverpool W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Birmingham City W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | West Ham W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chelsea W win, at 85.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.