The Valley · Referee K. Dowle · Analysis updated 22:05 UTC
Charlton Athletic W vs London City Lionesses W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Charlton Athletic W and 3.07 for London City Lionesses W, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives London City Lionesses W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
London City Lionesses W win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 3.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
London City Lionesses W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates London City Lionesses W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Charlton Athletic W and 3.07 for London City Lionesses W, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 56%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–39.1%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–47.0%
Recent form
Charlton Athletic W
London City Lionesses W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is London City Lionesses W win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.