The Valley · Referee Tom Reeves, England · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Charlton vs Bristol City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Charlton and 1.15 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Bristol City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Charlton home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bristol City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–28.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 58.1% vs market 48.5%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +9.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.2% | 59.8% | 1.67 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.6% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 29.8% | 3.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.8% | 40.2% | 2.49 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Charlton
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
Bristol City
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Charlton 0-0 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2019-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 3-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2019-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · Charlton 1-2 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2016-02-06T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 0-1 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2015-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 1-1 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2013-05-04T11:45:00.000Z · Charlton 4-1 Bristol City (Championship)
- 2012-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Charlton 2-0 Bristol City (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.