Chasetown vs Stafford Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Chasetown and 0.94 for Stafford Rangers, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Chasetown the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chasetown win

52.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chasetown home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stafford Rangers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chasetown to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Chasetown and 0.94 for Stafford Rangers, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chasetown win53%

Draw25%

Stafford Rangers win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–111.9%
2–010.0%
2–19.5%
0–07.9%

Recent form

Chasetown

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Boldmere St. Michaels · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stalybridge Celtic · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Congleton Town · 2-1 (W)

Stafford Rangers

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloucester City · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Div One - Northern West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bury	42	27	9	6	50	90
2	Avro	42	27	7	8	53	88
3	Stalybridge Celtic	42	25	7	10	33	82
4	Runcorn Linnets	42	23	11	8	31	80
5	Lower Breck	42	22	9	11	26	75
6	Bootle	42	21	11	10	21	74
7	Vauxhall Motors	42	20	12	10	24	72
8	Witton Albion	42	17	10	15	9	61
9	Nantwich Town	42	18	7	17	4	61
10	Chasetown	42	17	9	16	3	60
11	Mossley	42	14	17	11	6	59
12	Shifnal Town FC	42	15	10	17	-7	55
13	Atherton Collieries	42	16	7	19	-12	55
14	Newcastle Town	42	15	7	20	-17	52
15	Clitheroe	42	13	12	17	-3	51
16	Kidsgrove Athletic	42	12	11	19	-16	47
17	Stafford Rangers	42	12	9	21	-19	45
18	Congleton Town	42	10	14	18	-12	44
19	Sporting Khalsa	42	12	7	23	-24	43
20	Wythenshawe Town	42	8	8	26	-53	32
21	Trafford	42	7	8	27	-31	29
22	Darlaston Town	42	7	6	29	-66	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chasetown win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.