Stade de la Ville en Bois · Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Châteaubriant vs Bayonne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Châteaubriant and 1.33 for Bayonne, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Bayonne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayonne win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Châteaubriant home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayonne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayonne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 23% / 28% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Châteaubriant and 1.33 for Bayonne, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–09.6%
Recent form
Châteaubriant
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontivy GSI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-0 (D)
Bayonne
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinan Léhon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Les Herbiers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Angoulême · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Châteaubriant · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayonne win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.