· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Châteaubriant vs Tarbes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Châteaubriant and 0.91 for Tarbes, a combined total of 1.44. That distribution gives Tarbes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
79.6% probability
Expected goals
0.53 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Châteaubriant home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarbes away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tarbes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 20% / 37% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Châteaubriant and 0.91 for Tarbes, a combined 1.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.7%
- 0–121.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Châteaubriant
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontivy GSI · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayonne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarbes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chauray · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Avranches · 0-3 (L)
Tarbes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinan Léhon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Les Herbiers · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angoulême · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Châteaubriant · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorient II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Granville | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Avranches | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Dinan Léhon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Saint-Malo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Tarbes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Lorient II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Briochin | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Les Herbiers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Saumur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Chauray | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.