Stade Claude Jamet · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Châteauroux II vs Châtellerault Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Châteauroux II and 0.91 for Châtellerault, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Châteauroux II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Châteauroux II win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Châteauroux II home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Châteauroux II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Châteauroux II and 0.91 for Châtellerault, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–08.4%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Châteauroux II
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UF Touraine · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs USSA Vertou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nantes II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Angers SCO II · 0-0 (D)
Châtellerault
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 57 |
| 2 | UF Touraine | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Nantes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | Challans | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | La Châtaigneraie | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Vendée Fontenay | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Les Sables | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 32 |
| 8 | Panazol | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Châteauroux II | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 30 |
| 11 | USSA Vertou | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Chauvigny | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | -12 | 24 |
| 13 | Angers SCO II | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Châtellerault | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -37 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Châteauroux II win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.