Stade Gaston Petit · Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Chateauroux vs Nimes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chateauroux and 2.15 for Nimes, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Nimes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nimes win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chateauroux home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nimes away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Chateauroux
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rumilly Vallières · 4-7 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Istres · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Limonest · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 0-1 (L)
Nimes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hauts Lyonnais · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-24T18:30:00.000Z · Chateauroux 3-2 Nimes (Ligue 3)
- 2024-08-23T17:30:00.000Z · Chateauroux 0-1 Nimes (Ligue 3)
- 2024-02-16T18:30:00.000Z · Chateauroux 0-1 Nimes (Ligue 3)
- 2023-09-08T17:30:00.000Z · Chateauroux 2-2 Nimes (Ligue 3)
- 2018-01-20T14:00:00.000Z · Chateauroux 0-3 Nimes (Ligue 2)
- 2017-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · Chateauroux 1-0 Nimes (Ligue 2)
- 2016-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · Chateauroux 1-1 Nimes (Coupe de la Ligue)
- 2015-02-27T19:00:00.000Z · Chateauroux 2-1 Nimes (Ligue 2)
- 2014-09-23T18:55:00.000Z · Chateauroux 0-1 Nimes (Ligue 2)
- 2014-03-28T19:00:00.000Z · Chateauroux 2-0 Nimes (Ligue 2)
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nimes win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.