Stade du Lussy · Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
Châtel-St-Denis vs Olympique de Genève Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Châtel-St-Denis and 1.90 for Olympique de Genève, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Olympique de Genève the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Olympique de Genève win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Châtel-St-Denis home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Olympique de Genève away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Olympique de Genève to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Châtel-St-Denis and 1.90 for Olympique de Genève, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Châtel-St-Denis
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Echichens · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vernier · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farvagny / Ogoz · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pully Football · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-4 (L)
Olympique de Genève
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Collombey-Muraz · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Echichens · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vernier · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farvagny / Ogoz · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pully Football · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Châtel-St-Denis 1-0 Olympique de Genève (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
- 2024-10-05T15:15:00.000Z · Châtel-St-Denis 0-2 Olympique de Genève (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
- 2024-03-09T16:00:00.000Z · Châtel-St-Denis 0-1 Olympique de Genève (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
- 2023-08-26T15:00:00.000Z · Châtel-St-Denis 2-1 Olympique de Genève (2. Liga Interregional - Group 1)
2. Liga Interregional - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amical Saint-Prex | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 61 |
| 2 | Martigny Sports | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Collex-Bossy | 30 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Terre Sainte | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 5 | Farvagny / Ogoz | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Pully Football | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 7 | Olympique de Genève | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 43 |
| 8 | Vernier | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | UGS | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Concordia Lausanne | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 37 |
| 11 | Signal | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | Echichens | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Collombey-Muraz | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 14 | Romontois | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 | Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -15 | 32 |
| 16 | Châtel-St-Denis | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -49 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Olympique de Genève win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.