CHI Memorial Stadium · Referee M. Maric · Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Chattanooga Red Wolves and 1.65 for Forward Madison, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Forward Madison the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chattanooga Red Wolves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Forward Madison away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Spokane Velocity · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · A vs One Knoxville · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Corpus Christi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Spokane Velocity · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Naples · 0-1 (L)
Forward Madison
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Fort Wayne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Spokane Velocity · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Alta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarasota Paradise · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2-5 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2025-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-2 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2025-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2-1 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2025-05-31T23:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-1 Forward Madison (USL League One Cup)
- 2024-10-12T22:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-2 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2024-09-07T23:30:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-3 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2024-08-11T00:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-2 Forward Madison (USL League One Cup)
- 2024-06-08T23:30:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 0-1 Forward Madison (USL League One Cup)
- 2023-09-02T23:30:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 3-1 Forward Madison (USL League One)
- 2023-08-10T00:00:00.000Z · Chattanooga Red Wolves 0-1 Forward Madison (USL League One)
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 51 |
| 5 | Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 39 |
| 9 | Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | -8 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -20 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -22 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.