Finley Stadium · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Chattanooga vs Atlanta United II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Chattanooga and 1.69 for Atlanta United II, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Chattanooga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chattanooga win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chattanooga home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chattanooga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Chattanooga and 1.69 for Atlanta United II, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Chattanooga
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntsville City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Carolina Core · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-3 (L)
Atlanta United II
- 2026-08-28T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs New York RB II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Chattanooga · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chattanooga win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.