· Analysis updated 01:45 UTC
Chavdar Troyan vs Pavlikeni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chavdar Troyan and 0.99 for Pavlikeni, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Chavdar Troyan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chavdar Troyan win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chavdar Troyan home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chavdar Troyan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Chavdar Troyan and 0.99 for Pavlikeni, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
Recent form
Chavdar Troyan
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven II · 1-1 (D)
- 2020-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariana Erden · 0-4 (L)
- 2020-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 3-0 (W)
- 2020-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Botev Lukovit · 3-2 (W)
Pavlikeni
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chavdar Troyan win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.