· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Chaves II vs Rebordosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chaves II and 1.17 for Rebordosa, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Rebordosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chaves II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rebordosa away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rebordosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 35% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Chaves II and 1.17 for Rebordosa, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.42 | 63.5% | 65.2% | 1.53 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 35.7% | 36.8% | 2.72 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 34.1% | 34.8% | 2.87 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.53 | 59.0% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.1% | 71.6% | 1.40 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 41.0% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 64.4% | 63.2% | 1.58 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.95 | 30.2% | 28.4% | 3.52 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chaves II
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Celoricense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vinhais · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebordosa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Limianos · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-08T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 0-1 (L)
Rebordosa
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ponte da Barca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Limianos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vila Meã · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alpendorada · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chaves II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Chaves II 1-0 Rebordosa (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.