Estadio Municipal de Chaves · Referee Fabio Melo, Portugal · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Chaves vs Academica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Chaves and 1.72 for Academica, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Academica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Academica win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chaves home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Academica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Academica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Chaves and 1.72 for Academica, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Chaves
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)
Academica
- 2026-09-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Benfica B · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Academica win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.