Estadio Municipal de Chaves · Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Chaves vs Os Marialvas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Chaves and 1.45 for Os Marialvas, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Os Marialvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Os Marialvas win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chaves home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Os Marialvas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Os Marialvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Chaves and 1.45 for Os Marialvas, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Chaves
- 2026-09-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)
Os Marialvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nazarenos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fátima · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs AD Fornos Algodres · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Os Marialvas win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.